Thursday, September 28, 2006
CAIDA DEL PRECIO DE LA GASOLINA AYUDA A QUE EL MERCADO DE BIENES RAICES RECUPERE
MARRERO REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE LLC
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
BROKER REAL ESTATE LIC
MUY BUENOS DIAS A TODOS
TODOS NOS DAMOS CUENTA QUE EL PRECIO DE LA GASOLINA A BAJADO UN POCO. ESTE HECHO AYUDA A VIGORIZAR LA ECONOMIA EN LA FLORIDA, SEGUN VARIOS ESPERTOS DE LA UNIVERSIDAD DE GAINSVILLE.
A CONTINUACION LA NOTICIA EN DETALLE
GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Sept. 27, 2006 -- Falling gas prices boosted consumer confidence among Floridians by five points to 82 in September, causing it to recover some of last month’s losses, University of Florida economists report.
"The increase in confidence this month is in large part due to a dramatic change in gasoline prices, which have fallen nearly 30 cents (a gallon) in the past month, making them close to 19 cents lower than they were a year ago in Florida," says Chris McCarty, director of the survey research center at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "We attributed a large part of the decline in confidence last month to sustained high gas prices and erosion in the housing market."
Typically, gasoline prices drop in September as demand falls with the end of the summer traveling season and start of the school year, McCarty says.
"In addition, recovery of Gulf Coast refineries, discovery of new oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico, an early resolution to the Alaskan pipeline leakage and some positive news on the confrontation with Iran over nuclear weapons have resulted in a decrease in the price of crude oil," he said.
Helping matters is the lack of a major hurricane so far this year, McCarty says. "Often higher prices in the cost of a barrel of oil are due to speculation about hurricane season," he notes.
Confidence fell between July and August by 10 points to 77, but there was an increase in four of the five components in September. Expectations about national economic conditions over the next year jumped 10 points to 72 and perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items jumped 10 points to 97. Expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose four points to 77. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose four points to 78. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell three points to 88.
"Moving forward, the question is how much lower energy prices will balance out the problems in real estate," McCarty says. "We have definitely begun to see the effect of declining housing sales."
Florida is among a few markets in the country that can expect strong corrections in some areas, according to McCarty.
"Existing home sales data show the inventory of homes rising, particularly here in Florida," he says. "As inventory continues to build and houses sit on the market longer, sellers will ultimately realize that they have to reduce their asking prices. This will have multiple effects, particularly on those that are in a position where they must sell, and those that rely on their homes as their primary source of wealth."
Much of the sales gains in August, the latest month for which data are available, were the result of auto sales, as retail sales dropped. As expected, sales of home furnishings, building materials and appliances were low compared with previous months, caused by declining demand from the stagnating housing market.
Chain-store sales fell in September following the back-to-school sales in August and have been particularly affected by high gasoline prices, McCarty says. They are heavily represented by low-price retailers such as Wal-Mart, and consumers who frequent these stores are more affected by higher gas prices than other consumers, he adds.
The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for September was conducted from 422 responses. The error rate is plus or minus 5 percent.
Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for the year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.
© 2006 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
RAULMARREROJR@YAHOO.COM
787-486-7906
407-436-5140
TODOS SOMOS GUERREROS DE LUZ!
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
BROKER REAL ESTATE LIC
MUY BUENOS DIAS A TODOS
TODOS NOS DAMOS CUENTA QUE EL PRECIO DE LA GASOLINA A BAJADO UN POCO. ESTE HECHO AYUDA A VIGORIZAR LA ECONOMIA EN LA FLORIDA, SEGUN VARIOS ESPERTOS DE LA UNIVERSIDAD DE GAINSVILLE.
A CONTINUACION LA NOTICIA EN DETALLE
GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Sept. 27, 2006 -- Falling gas prices boosted consumer confidence among Floridians by five points to 82 in September, causing it to recover some of last month’s losses, University of Florida economists report.
"The increase in confidence this month is in large part due to a dramatic change in gasoline prices, which have fallen nearly 30 cents (a gallon) in the past month, making them close to 19 cents lower than they were a year ago in Florida," says Chris McCarty, director of the survey research center at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. "We attributed a large part of the decline in confidence last month to sustained high gas prices and erosion in the housing market."
Typically, gasoline prices drop in September as demand falls with the end of the summer traveling season and start of the school year, McCarty says.
"In addition, recovery of Gulf Coast refineries, discovery of new oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico, an early resolution to the Alaskan pipeline leakage and some positive news on the confrontation with Iran over nuclear weapons have resulted in a decrease in the price of crude oil," he said.
Helping matters is the lack of a major hurricane so far this year, McCarty says. "Often higher prices in the cost of a barrel of oil are due to speculation about hurricane season," he notes.
Confidence fell between July and August by 10 points to 77, but there was an increase in four of the five components in September. Expectations about national economic conditions over the next year jumped 10 points to 72 and perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items jumped 10 points to 97. Expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose four points to 77. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago rose four points to 78. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell three points to 88.
"Moving forward, the question is how much lower energy prices will balance out the problems in real estate," McCarty says. "We have definitely begun to see the effect of declining housing sales."
Florida is among a few markets in the country that can expect strong corrections in some areas, according to McCarty.
"Existing home sales data show the inventory of homes rising, particularly here in Florida," he says. "As inventory continues to build and houses sit on the market longer, sellers will ultimately realize that they have to reduce their asking prices. This will have multiple effects, particularly on those that are in a position where they must sell, and those that rely on their homes as their primary source of wealth."
Much of the sales gains in August, the latest month for which data are available, were the result of auto sales, as retail sales dropped. As expected, sales of home furnishings, building materials and appliances were low compared with previous months, caused by declining demand from the stagnating housing market.
Chain-store sales fell in September following the back-to-school sales in August and have been particularly affected by high gasoline prices, McCarty says. They are heavily represented by low-price retailers such as Wal-Mart, and consumers who frequent these stores are more affected by higher gas prices than other consumers, he adds.
The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for September was conducted from 422 responses. The error rate is plus or minus 5 percent.
Consumer confidence is designed to help predict buying patterns by measuring the mood of consumers toward purchasing. Although other economic indicators also predict buying patterns, consumer confidence tends to be available sooner. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for the year. The value of the index is in comparing changes over time rather than looking at an isolated month.
© 2006 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
RAULMARREROJR@YAHOO.COM
787-486-7906
407-436-5140
TODOS SOMOS GUERREROS DE LUZ!
