Friday, August 04, 2006
CAUTELA EN LA INDUSTRIA DE LA CONSTRUCCION EN LA FLORIDA
MARRERO REAL ESTTE BROKER LLC
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
REAL ESTATE BROKER LIC
UN MARAVILLOSO DIA PARA TODOS
HOY LES PRESENTO UNA NOTICIA DEL ORLANDO SENTINEL SOBRE EL RESULTADO DE UNA REUNION DE LOS DESAROLLADORES Y CONTRATISTAS CELEBRADO EL ESTADO DE FLORIDA.
CON UN PRONOSTICO DE LO QUE QUEDA DEL ANO 2006 Y EL 2007 Y LA EXPECTATIVA DE UN REGRESO A UN MERCADO FAVORABLE PARA EL 2008.
A CONTINUACION EL TEXTO DE LA NOTICIA
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Aug. 3, 2006 -- Top housing-industry economists warned home builders meeting in Orlando on Wednesday that the industry will remain weak the rest of this year and next before possibly rebounding in 2008.
Higher interest rates and declining affordability are taking a toll, said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, and David Berson, chief economist for the Federal National Mortgage Association, known as Fannie Mae.
"I'm trimming everything in our forecast," Seiders told more than 100 people attending an industry forum in the Rosen Centre Hotel preceding today's opening of the Southeast Building Conference in the Orange County Convention Center.
"The economy has slowed and will slow further. I've got it that way through next year," he said.
Seiders said cancellations of new-home sales contracts are up sharply, builder confidence has plummeted, investor-owned homes are boosting inventory to record levels and home prices are starting to slip.
"Something is seriously going on here," said Seiders, who repeated a previous warning that "it's more than an orderly downturn."
Berson took a slightly more optimistic tone during the forum but did caution that, if oil prices continue to rise and another shock hits the U.S. economy, such as bird flu or a terrorist attack, "it could tip us into recession in 2007."
Both Berson and Seiders noted that Florida has advantages over most other states, with stronger job creation and healthier in-migration of residents. Those strengths seem to be remaining in place for both the home-construction and resale markets, though the state's rapid price run-up of recent years has set the stage for a steeper decline -- and the crisis in property-insurance availability and affordability is a negative force adding to the headwinds.
Florida's recent home-price appreciation rate -- averaging about 15 percent a year for each of the past five years -- is unsustainable, Berson said, and the question now is just how much the market will slow before stabilizing.
Seiders said he continues to be concerned that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes are having an unintended consequence in that they drive up the so-called core inflation rate in a respect related to the ongoing downswing in housing.
While rising interest rates increase borrowing costs and slow the economy -- as they're supposed to do -- they also shift more consumers into the rental market, boosting apartment rates, and that gets factored into the federal government's Consumer Price Index, signaling more inflation, Seiders said.
"It turns out that Fed tightening is inflationary. How crazy is that," he said.
Seiders said that while he does have confidence in new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Fed officials seem relatively unconcerned that interest-rate increases, aimed at combating inflation, could actually contribute to inflationary pressure. Some members of Congress have taken note, he said, but it's unclear what might be done.
The Southeast Building Conference, which officially kicks off today with educational sessions and trade-show exhibits, continues through Saturday in the convention center's West Building. The event is open only to industry professionals.
Copyright © 2006 The Orlando Sentinel, Fla. Jerry W. Jackson. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.
RECOMENDAMOS A TODAS AQUELLAS PERSONAS QUE DESEAN COMPRAR EN LA FLORIDA QUE AHORA ES EL MOMENTO MAS INDICADO PARA OBTENER GRANDES BENEFICOS POR PARTE DE LOS DESARROLLADORES.
CUANDO EL MERCADO VUELVA HACER FAVORABLE PARA LOS DESARROLLADORES DE NUEVO SE CONVERTIRA EN UN SELLER MARKET CON MUY POCOS O NINGUN INCENTIVO A LOS COMPRADORES.
APROVECHE AHORA
EN MARRERO REAL ESTATE ESTAMOS PARA SERVIRLE SIEMPRE
GRACIAS POR VISITAR NUESTRO BLOG www.joseraulmarrero.com
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
407-436-5140
787 486-7906
TODOS SOMOS GUERREROS DE LUZ!
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
REAL ESTATE BROKER LIC
UN MARAVILLOSO DIA PARA TODOS
HOY LES PRESENTO UNA NOTICIA DEL ORLANDO SENTINEL SOBRE EL RESULTADO DE UNA REUNION DE LOS DESAROLLADORES Y CONTRATISTAS CELEBRADO EL ESTADO DE FLORIDA.
CON UN PRONOSTICO DE LO QUE QUEDA DEL ANO 2006 Y EL 2007 Y LA EXPECTATIVA DE UN REGRESO A UN MERCADO FAVORABLE PARA EL 2008.
A CONTINUACION EL TEXTO DE LA NOTICIA
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Aug. 3, 2006 -- Top housing-industry economists warned home builders meeting in Orlando on Wednesday that the industry will remain weak the rest of this year and next before possibly rebounding in 2008.
Higher interest rates and declining affordability are taking a toll, said David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, and David Berson, chief economist for the Federal National Mortgage Association, known as Fannie Mae.
"I'm trimming everything in our forecast," Seiders told more than 100 people attending an industry forum in the Rosen Centre Hotel preceding today's opening of the Southeast Building Conference in the Orange County Convention Center.
"The economy has slowed and will slow further. I've got it that way through next year," he said.
Seiders said cancellations of new-home sales contracts are up sharply, builder confidence has plummeted, investor-owned homes are boosting inventory to record levels and home prices are starting to slip.
"Something is seriously going on here," said Seiders, who repeated a previous warning that "it's more than an orderly downturn."
Berson took a slightly more optimistic tone during the forum but did caution that, if oil prices continue to rise and another shock hits the U.S. economy, such as bird flu or a terrorist attack, "it could tip us into recession in 2007."
Both Berson and Seiders noted that Florida has advantages over most other states, with stronger job creation and healthier in-migration of residents. Those strengths seem to be remaining in place for both the home-construction and resale markets, though the state's rapid price run-up of recent years has set the stage for a steeper decline -- and the crisis in property-insurance availability and affordability is a negative force adding to the headwinds.
Florida's recent home-price appreciation rate -- averaging about 15 percent a year for each of the past five years -- is unsustainable, Berson said, and the question now is just how much the market will slow before stabilizing.
Seiders said he continues to be concerned that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes are having an unintended consequence in that they drive up the so-called core inflation rate in a respect related to the ongoing downswing in housing.
While rising interest rates increase borrowing costs and slow the economy -- as they're supposed to do -- they also shift more consumers into the rental market, boosting apartment rates, and that gets factored into the federal government's Consumer Price Index, signaling more inflation, Seiders said.
"It turns out that Fed tightening is inflationary. How crazy is that," he said.
Seiders said that while he does have confidence in new Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Fed officials seem relatively unconcerned that interest-rate increases, aimed at combating inflation, could actually contribute to inflationary pressure. Some members of Congress have taken note, he said, but it's unclear what might be done.
The Southeast Building Conference, which officially kicks off today with educational sessions and trade-show exhibits, continues through Saturday in the convention center's West Building. The event is open only to industry professionals.
Copyright © 2006 The Orlando Sentinel, Fla. Jerry W. Jackson. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Business News.
RECOMENDAMOS A TODAS AQUELLAS PERSONAS QUE DESEAN COMPRAR EN LA FLORIDA QUE AHORA ES EL MOMENTO MAS INDICADO PARA OBTENER GRANDES BENEFICOS POR PARTE DE LOS DESARROLLADORES.
CUANDO EL MERCADO VUELVA HACER FAVORABLE PARA LOS DESARROLLADORES DE NUEVO SE CONVERTIRA EN UN SELLER MARKET CON MUY POCOS O NINGUN INCENTIVO A LOS COMPRADORES.
APROVECHE AHORA
EN MARRERO REAL ESTATE ESTAMOS PARA SERVIRLE SIEMPRE
GRACIAS POR VISITAR NUESTRO BLOG www.joseraulmarrero.com
JOSE RAUL MARRERO
407-436-5140
787 486-7906
TODOS SOMOS GUERREROS DE LUZ!
