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WASHINGTON -- July 26, 2006 -- For the first time in more than a decade, home prices could start to fall around the country in coming months, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said Tuesday after a report showed that sales of existing homes fell in June and the number of homes for sale soared to their highest point since 1997.



Condo prices are already being hit: They fell 2.1 percent from June last year to a median $226,900 (median means half cost less and half cost more). Prices of single-family homes edged up 1.1 percent in June to $231,500. With a 6.8-month supply of single-family homes on the market and an eight-month supply of condos, sellers are under more pressure to cut prices, and buyers can be choosy.



David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said he expects "price numbers to start deteriorating," though he still projects home prices will be up 5.3 percent for the year.



The new figures provide deeper evidence that the nation's housing market is undergoing a jarring transition from a seller's to a buyer's market. The five-year boom, which peaked in August, was driven partly by investors, who snapped up 28 percent of homes sold last year. Many of them now want to sell. But rising interest rates and lofty home prices have squeezed out many buyers.



"Prices got too high in some local markets," Lereah said. "So you're seeing two things occur: Investors are leaving quickly, and regular home buyers are staying on the sidelines."



The last time single-family home prices fell was in April 1995, when they slipped 0.1 percent.



The NAR said June existing-home sales slipped 1.3 percent from May, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.62 million and were down 8.9 percent from June 2005. On Thursday, the Commerce Department will report new home sales for June, and economists such as Phillip Neuhart of Wachovia expect those figures, too, to show continuing weakness.



"The numbers are not fully counting cancellations, which builders are reporting at a very high level," Neuhart notes.



Many developers received approval for their projects when demand was sizzling. Now, some have to offer vacations, pools and car leases to entice buyers.



For existing-home sales, the weakest region was the West, where sales plunged 17.1 percent from June 2005. Sales fell 9.8 percent in the Northeast, 6.2 percent in the Midwest and 5.5 percent in the South.



"Markets which have been the hottest are quite likely to see home price declines," says John Ryding, an economist at Bear Stearns. "In those markets, you could see declines for the year."



The California Association of Realtors said Tuesday that home sales skidded 26 percent from June last year and are off 20 percent for the year. Though the median-priced home statewide hit a record $575,800, prices fell in five areas, including Santa Cruz, Palm Springs and Santa Barbara.



"Affordability has probably hit a record low," says Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist for CAR.



Ron Peltier, CEO of HomeServices of America, adds, "There is a delayed reaction on the part of sellers to accept the new reality."

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